The Trump administration — which first insisted tariffs are paid for by foreign countries and not Americans, then backtracked to admit Americans would be feeling the brunt of the hikes — should maybe walk into a grocery store to fully comprehend who is feeling the crunch at the checkout.
Threats, blocks and dips from the erratic nature of the current administration’s tariffs have left American and international markets in a seemingly unpredictable state. And with the latest attempts from judges to block President Donald Trump’s tariffs, how swiftly (if at all) will we be seeing price changes at the grocery store?
After all this, is there any hope that Americans will see the prices drop on their grocery bills? Are tariffs hitting our stomach and wallets in unexpected ways? And does the legal battle to end or keep the tariffs alter the price of those increasingly costly avocados?
HuffPost spoke with economists and market and legal experts for insight into whether the prices at the store are a reflection of Trump’s tariffs, how the legal battles may impact costs, and if we can expect the high cost of goods to continue.
Have tariffs already increased our grocery bills?
Abigail Hall Blanco, associate professor of economics at the University of Tampa, pointed out it’s “difficult to determine” the cost increases from the tariffs “in real time” — fluctuations in price could be attributed to Trump, inflation or additional factors like the H5 bird flu. But Blanco added that even if it’s difficult to pinpoint the exact cause of a single price change, we know “from economics and historical data that tariffs harm U.S. consumers.”
Amrita Bhasin, the co-founder of Sotira, a venture-backed startup in the supply chain and logistics space, helps big-box stores, grocery delivery companies and grocery stores select pricing. She recently spoke at Home Delivery World, the leading retail logistics conference, about how retailers should handle inventory planning for food amid Trump’s tariffs. She said consumers should expect prices to rise on a product many of us think of as a cheaper alternative to fresh products: canned goods. “There are a lot of items advertised to consumers as made in the U.S., but the materials and packaging are actually made abroad,” Bhasin said.
Why is this? It’s because the U.S. import tax for steel and aluminum has been increased to 50% for all foreign trading partners, the only exception being the 25% tax for the United Kingdom.
Christine Abely, assistant professor of law at New England Law in Boston, teaches international business transactions and explained it’s important to distinguish which of Trump’s tariffs are likely to be blocked or lifted. She told HuffPost that the tariffs imposed pursuant to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act “whether on the grounds of the emergency of fentanyl or that of the trade deficit in goods (the latter of which are the ‘reciprocal’ tariffs) are much more likely to be blocked/lifted, since they’ve already been held invalid by the U.S. Court of International Trade, as well as the D.C. District Court.”
Presently, these tariffs remain in place pending appeal of the Court of International Trade judgment to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit — and the appeal of the D.C. District Court judgment to the D.C. Circuit, according to Abely. “They will be lifted should the relevant federal appellate courts (and the Supreme Court, if the cases are further appealed) agree with the rulings of the lower courts.”
But the imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum products will likely not be blocked, according to Abely, “because they were not part of the recent U.S. Court of International Trade judgment and will not be blocked pursuant to its authority.”
Most people blame the government for the rising price of groceries.
Brian Numainville, principal at The Feedback Group, shared a recently released national study about the economic stressors Americans are feeling at the supermarket, and commented to HuffPost on the erratic roller coaster of tariff increases and decreases and legal orders. The study found 61% of U.S. supermarket shoppers report feeling stressed about rising grocery prices and that this stress is especially pronounced among younger and middle-age shoppers: Generation X (70%), millennials (67%) and Generation Z (65%).
And shoppers were asked what they believe has created higher supermarket prices, they pointed to government policies and actions as the most responsible. Numainville added, “Consumers continue to believe that external factors — particularly government policy and suppliers — are driving price hikes more than the supermarkets themselves. These perceptions are intensifying over time.”
How does the back-and-forth in the courts affect our food costs?
Tax attorney Nikhil S. Agharkar, owner and managing member of Crowne Point Tax, explained that even if the judges rule the tariffs must be lifted, many of the effects were instantaneous when they were announced.
“The horse is out of the barn on the lasting impact of tariffs,” he said. “The problem with tariffs in our modern economy is that they work like a monkey wrench in the works.”
Agharkar went on to explain that retailers often order inventory for the holiday season between January and June, and that no judge would have been able to step in immediately after the executive orders. “The legal system simply does not work that fast because there is a defined procedure to litigation. The impacts of tariffs were complete upon their announcement,” he said.
According to Agharkar, retailers had to make decisions long before any judge could weigh in and had to change their purchasing behavior and maybe forgo certain items that they had planned to sell in the U.S.
“There is little chance that a judge will be able to block the tariffs with no lasting effect because those effects have already been felt, processed, and dealt with by retailers,” he added. “Consumers will feel the impact of the decisions retailers have made in the coming months, whether a judge acts today to block these tariffs or not.”
Numainville noted it “is possible that the current situation regarding the ups and downs with tariffs will result in some products either becoming very high priced” or not available due to the lack of products being shipped because of the high tariffs and the inability of some companies to engage in long-term planning or the lack of accurate forecasting of demand.
Will court rulings make the tariffs disappear?
Attorney Ben Michael said he expects this fight may end up at the Supreme Court, given that several judges have ruled the tariffs to be unlawful, for a few different reasons, and most of the rulings have to do with their interpretations of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act being different from the Trump administration’s interpretations.
“But while rulings have not been in favor of Trump’s tariffs in a handful of courts, that doesn’t mean we’re going to see an end to Trump’s efforts anytime soon,” he added. “There is a high likelihood that this eventually makes its way to the Supreme Court.”
Blanco weighed in on the legal blocking and unblocking of the tariffs and pointed out that, even with the legal blocks, certain tariffs will likely remain in place and cause spikes in prices. “If the tariffs are repealed or blocked, we’d expect to avoid at least some of the effects of the tariffs. The tariffs on steel and aluminum and cars, however, directly affect things like transport costs. Those are often implemented in the name of ‘national security’ and I anticipate those will likely remain. If that’s the case, we’d expect impacts on prices,” Blanco said.
David Coale, an appellate lawyer in Dallas, has been intensely following the legality of Trump’s tariffs and wrote in an article for Slate that he also believes this is headed to the Supreme Court. “The longer the tariffs stay in place, the more inertia they have — so even if the administration loses these challenges, this additional time will help them get a further stay from the Supreme Court while the administration tries to convince it to take the case.”
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