Timothée Chalamet, Emma Stone, 'Wicked 2'

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Dwayne Johnson
A24

Oscars Commentary (Updated: July 1, 2025): With the first wave of Oscar predictions for best picture rolling in, the field for the 2026 ceremony is already shaping up to be as exciting as in years past.

It’s stacked with a compelling mix of Hollywood veterans, global talents and bold career pivots. George Clooney has strong early buzz for his turn in “Jay Kelly,” a stripped-down Hollywood dramedy from Noah Baumbach that could bring the two-time Oscar winner back to the Dolby Theatre. Wagner Moura, fresh off his best actor win at Cannes, looks to be a force in Kleber Mendonça Filho’s Brazilian political thriller “The Secret Agent.” Meanwhile, Jennifer Lawrence is said to deliver one of her most haunting performances yet in Lynne Ramsay’s “Die, My Love,” a psychological descent into maternal instability.

Big studio projects are also muscling into the conversation, with Universal’s “Wicked: For Good” aiming to enchant voters in a year where spectacle could collide with sincerity. Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, both acclaimed vocal powerhouses, reprise their iconic roles in a two-part cinematic adaptation that is likely to resonate with both Academy voters and the general audience.

Oscar winner Julia Roberts is rumored to be a formidable presence in Luca Guadagnino’s “After the Hunt,” which promises to be a gripping psychological showcase. Emily Blunt and Dwayne Johnson reunite — and transform — in A24’s “The Smashing Machine,” a brutal and emotionally raw portrait of love, addiction and redemption in the MMA world.

Diversity and risk-taking appear to be key themes this season.

The movie musical “Kiss of the Spider Woman,” from director Bill Condon, could make history if breakout star Tonatiuh and global icon Jennifer Lopez gain traction for their daring, gender-fluid performances. And don’t count out Stellan Skarsgård, whose turn in Joachim Trier’s “Sentimental Value” — winner of the Grand Prix at Cannes — is being described as one of his most quietly devastating roles, along with co-stars Renate Reinsve and Elle Fanning.

And don’t worry — we haven’t forgotten the first-half contenders. Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” and Joseph Kosinski’s “F1” both lit up the box office and are firmly in the hunt.

See the category updates below, along with the first official charts in the best picture category. Other categories will be rolling out over the next few weeks, leading up to the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals at the end of August.

*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order.)00

Best Picture

Image Credit: Focus Features

“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Yorgos Lanthimos, Ari Aster, Lars Knudsen, Emma Stone, Miky Lee, Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Jerry Kyoungboum Ko
“Deliver Me From Nowhere” (20th Century Studios)
Scott Stuber, Ellen Goldsmith-Vein, Scott Cooper, Eric Robinson
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
Jerry Bruckheimer, Joseph Kosinski, Lewis Hamilton, Brad Pitt, Jeremy Kleiner, Dede Gardner, Chad Oman
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Guillermo del Toro, Scott Stuber, J. Miles Dale
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
Pippa Harris, Liza Marshall, Sam Mendes, Steven Spielberg
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
Noah Baumbach, Amy Pascal, David Heyman
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian, Ryan Coogler
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Maria Ekerhovd, Andrew Berenstsen Ottmar
“The Smashing Machine” (A24)
Dwayne Johnson, Benny Safdie, Eli Bush, David Koplan
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Marc Platt

Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Director

Image Credit: Warner Bros.

Jon M. Chu
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Ryan Coogler
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Yorgos Lanthimos
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Joachim Trier
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Chloé Zhao ***
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Actor

Image Credit: Peter Mountain/Netflix

George Clooney
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
Dwayne Johnson
“The Smashing Machine” (A24)
Michael B. Jordan
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Wagner Moura
“The Secret Agent” (Neon)
Jesse Plemons ***
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Actress

Jessie Buckley ***
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Cynthia Erivo
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Jennifer Lawrence
“Die, My Love” (Mubi)
Renate Reinsve
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Julia Roberts
“After the Hunt” (Amazon MGM Studios)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Supporting Actor

Image Credit: Neon

Tonatiuh Elizarraraz
“Kiss of the Spider Woman” (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions)
Paul Mescal
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Stellan Skarsgård ***
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Jeremy Strong
“Deliver Me From Nowhere” (20th Century Studios)
Leo Woodall
“Nuremberg” (Sony Pictures Classics)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Supporting Actress

Image Credit: Universal

Emily Blunt ***
“The Smashing Machine” (A24)
Elle Fanning
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Ariana Grande
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Jennifer Lopez
“Kiss of the Spider Woman” (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions)
Emma Stone
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Casting

Image Credit: John Wilson/Netflix

“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Robin D. Cook
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Avy Kaufman
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Francine Maisler
“Wake Up Dead Man” (Netflix)
Mary Vernieu
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Tiffany Little Canfield, Bernard Telsey

Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Original Screenplay

Image Credit: Courtesy Cannes Film Festival

“Anemone” (Focus Features)
Daniel Day-Lewis, Ronan Day-Lewis
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
Jafar Panahi
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
Noah Baumbach, Emily Mortimer
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) ***
Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Ryan Coogler

Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Adapted Screenplay

Image Credit: Kata Vermes

“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Will Tracy (based on “Save the Green Planet!” by Jang Joon-hwan)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Guillermo del Toro (based on “Frankenstein” by Mary Shelley)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
Chloé Zhao (based on the novel by Maggie O’Farrell)
“Nuremberg” (Sony Pictures Classics)
James Vanderbilt (based on “The Nazi and the Psychiatrist” by Jack El-Hai)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Winnie Holzman, Dana Fox (based on the characters by L. Frank Baum and the novel by Gregory Maguire)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Animated Feature

“Arco” (Neon)
Ugo Bienvenu, Félix de Givry, Sophie Mas, Natalie Portman
“Elio” (Pixar)
Domee Shi, Adrian Molina, Madeline Sharafian
“Endless Cookie” (No U.S. Distribution)
Seth Scriver, Peter Scriver
“In Your Dreams” (Netflix) ***
Alex Woo, Erik Benson
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Jared Bush, Byron Howard

Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Production Design

Image Credit: 20th Century Studios

“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
Dylan Cole, Ben Procter, Vanessa Cole
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Fiona Crombie, Ruthie Falconer
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Hannah Bleachler, Monique Champagne
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Nathan Crowley, Lee Sandales

Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Cinematography

Image Credit: Netflix

“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
Claudio Miranda
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Dan Laustsen
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
Lukasz Zal
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Autumn Durald Arkapaw
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Alice Brooks

Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Costume Design

Image Credit: (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions)

“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Kate Hawley
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Malgosia Turzanska
“Kiss of the Spider Woman” (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions)
Colleen Atwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Ruth E. Carter
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Paul Tazewell

Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Film Editing

Image Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett C

“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Yorgos Mavropsaridis
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
Stephen Mirrione
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Chloé Zhao
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Olivier Bugge Coutté
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Michael P. Shawver

Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Makeup and Hairstyling

Image Credit: A24

“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Mother Mary” (A24)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“The Smashing Machine” (A24)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***

Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Sound

Image Credit: Netflix

“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
“Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning” (Paramount Pictures)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Visual Effects

Image Credit: Warner Bros. Discovery

“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) ***
“The Fantastic Four: First Steps” (Marvel Studios)
“How to Train Your Dragon” (Universal Pictures)
“Superman” (DC Studios)
“Tron: Ares” (Walt Disney Pictures)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Original Score

Image Credit: Courtesy

“After the Hunt” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Jerskin Fendrix
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Alexandre Desplat
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
Volker Bertelmann
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Ludwig Göransson

Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Original Song

Image Credit: DISNEY

“Diane Warren: Relentless” (Greenwich Entertainment)
“Dear Me” by Diane Warren
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Sinners” by Rod Wave
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
“Untitled Elphaba Song” by Stephen Schwartz
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
“Untitled Glinda Song” by Stephen Schwartz
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Unknown possible song

Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Documentary Feature

Image Credit: Courtesy of Sundance Institute

“Architecton” (A24)
“Cutting Through Rocks” (U.S. Distribution TBD)
“Endless Cookie” (U.S. Distribution TBD)
“The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix) ***
“Selena y Los Dinos” (U.S. Distribution TBD)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
International Feature

Image Credit: Credit: Quim Vives

“It Was Just an Accident” from Luxembourg (Neon)
“Nouvelle Vague” from France (Netflix)
“Sirât” from Spain (Neon)
“The Secret Agent” from Brazil (Neon)
“Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon) ***