The movie business hasn’t had much to be thankful for in recent years, but that’s changing this holiday week as a trio of splashy new releases are bringing audiences back to cinemas in a big way.
The most irresistible attraction is undoubtedly Disney Animation’s “Moana 2,” which racked up a massive $57.5 million on Wednesday, and is expected to dominate the Thanksgiving holiday box office with a performance for the history books. “Moana 2,” which was originally developed as a television show for Disney+ before it was retrofitted into a theatrical feature, is projected to collect at least $175 million over its first five days in theaters (rival studios have it hitting $200 million). If it achieves those lofty estimates, “Moana 2” will easily break records with the biggest Thanksgiving haul of all-time, overtaking the previous highs set by “Frozen II” ($125 million over the five days) and 2013’s “Hunger Games: Catching Fire” ($109 million over the five days). “Moana 2” opening day numbers already rank as the third biggest for an animated title, just behind “Incredibles 2” ($71.2 million) and “Inside Out 2” ($63.6 million). Globally, the film has earned $66.3 million.
But “Moana 2” isn’t the only thing sparking a revival at movie theaters. “Wicked,” Universal’s big-budget adaptation of the Broadway musical sensation, earned $20.4 million on Wednesday and is expected to rack up more than $63 million over the traditional weekend and $97 million over the five days. That means the movie, which is the first of a two-part odyssey through Oz, will have generated more than $240 million domestically be the end of the week. Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande star as Elphaba (later the Wicked Witch of the West) and Galinda (eventually rechristened Glinda the Good), in the critically acclaimed musical. The two films — Part 2 hits theaters next fall — cost a combined $300 million to produce, which doesn’t include the tens of millions more that were spent on marketing the whole thing. A promotional blitz that saw “Wicked” hawked on everything from Starbucks drinks to nail polish to Lego sets.
Then there’s “Gladiator II,” Paramount’s pricey follow-up to the 2000 epic, which collected $6.6 million on Wednesday. The film, which stars Paul Mescal, Pedro Pascal, and Denzel Washington, is expected to earn $28 million from North American cinemas over the traditional weekend and $40 million between Wednesday and Sunday. It will end the holiday having earned more than $107 million at the stateside box office. However, the return to the Colosseum didn’t come cheap, particularly after last year’s Hollywood strikes shut down production for months. “Gladiator II” has a massive $250 million budget.
Critics are lukewarm on “Moana 2,” handing it a middling 67% average on Rotten Tomatoes, but the first film has a passionate fanbase that grew substantially since its 2018 release thanks to its availability on streaming. It was one of Disney+’s most popular movies, accounting for over 80 billion minutes logged by viewers, according to Bloomberg. The voice cast for “Moana 2″ includes Auli’i Cravalho and Dwayne Johnson, who reprise their roles as the daughter of a Polynesian chief and a demigod. However, Lin-Manuel Miranda, who wrote popular songs for the first film like “How Far I’ll Go,” didn’t contribute new music for the followup. Instead, Disney tapped Abigail Barlow and Emily Bear, the team behind “The Unofficial Bridgerton Musical,” to cook up enough new numbers to make the soundtrack a holiday season must-buy for families.
Johnson is performing double duty at the multiplexes. He’s also the star of Amazon and MGM Studio’s “Red One,” which earned roughly $2.8 million on Wednesday. Its domestic gross should hover around $75 million after the holiday. That wouldn’t be a terrible number if the film hadn’t cost $250 million to make, positioning it as one of the year’s bigger box office duds. Like “Moana 2,” however, “Red One” was originally conceived as a streaming-only debut, before media companies began altering their distribution strategies to prioritize theatrical releases.
The strong performance of “Moana 2,” “Gladiator II” and “Wicked” is welcome news for the exhibition industry, which was just starting to recover from pandemic era shutdowns when the 2023 actors and writers strikes led to a cascade of delayed releases and fewer big movies to screen for customers. But the triumvirate of blockbuster hopefuls is changing the dynamic, and should result in a holiday week box office haul of over $315 million, setting a new milestone. Could this be a sign that things are finally turning around?
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