Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
“Severance” (Apple TV+)
Courtesy of Apple TV+
Outstanding Drama Series Commentary (Updated May 2, 2025): Bring on the drama!
Leading the charge in the Emmy race for outstanding drama series is Apple TV+’s “Severance,” which has built on its first-season momentum with a taut, visually inventive sophomore run. The streamer is also rallying support behind “Slow Horses,” with Gary Oldman’s performance once again drawing critical praise.
Over at HBO/Max, the second season of “The Last of Us” continues to swell, with Pedro Pascal, Bella Ramsey and Isabela Merced at the center of the action. While the dystopian zombie drama is one of HBO’s biggest critical and commercial hits, it enters the race as something of a dark horse — especially due to the shocking narrative twist in its second episode. Still, with strong performances and audience investment on its side, the series shouldn’t be counted out.
Meanwhile, Mike White’s “The White Lotus” returned with its third season, offering a new setting and cast shake-ups, though it remains to be seen if it can match the impact of its previous installment with mixed praise.
Netflix enters the fray with a stacked lineup, including the return of global phenomenon “Squid Game” (and with the third, and final season dropping during voting) and the political thriller “The Diplomat,” both poised for strong awards traction. But the race isn’t just about established titles — there’s a freshman class already making waves.
HBO/Max’s “The Pitt,” a gripping procedural anchored by a resurgent Noah Wyle could be the dark horse lurking to take it all home in the end (perhaps mimicking a surprise triumph similar to “Homeland” Season 1?). Hulu’s “Paradise,” starring Sterling K. Brown in a career-highlight turn, is also injecting new energy into the field.
(The list of predicted nominees and contenders is incomplete and will be updated every Thursday throughout the TV Awards season.)
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And the Predicted Contenders Are:
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More Information (Drama Series)
2024 category winner: “Shogun” (FX) — Season 1 — Justin Marks, Michaela Clavell, Edward L. McDonnell, Michael De Luca and Rachel Kondo, executive producers; Shannon Goss, Andrew Macdonald, Allon Reich and Jamie Vega Wheeler, co-executive producers; Hiroyuki Sanada and Eriko Miyagawa, producers; Erin Smith, produced by; Matt Lambert, consulting producer
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About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.
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