Will “Thunderbolts” bring the box office thunder?
Disney’s latest Marvel superhero adventure is targeting $70 million to $75 million in its opening weekend, providing another needed jolt to movie theaters after the one-two punch of “A Minecraft Movie” and “Sinners.” Globally, “Thunderbolts” looks to finish the weekend with $160 million to $175 million.
Those projected sales are softer than most of the recent entries in the Marvel Cinematic Universe; “Captain America: Brave New World” opened in February to $88 million over the weekend, $100 million through the extended Presidents’ Day holiday weekend and $192.4 million globally. And prior to that, only three post-pandemic Marvel adventures — 2021’s “Eternals” ($71 million), “Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” ($75 million) and 2023’s “The Marvels” ($46 million) — have started below $100 million. Otherwise, big guns like 2024’s “Deadpool & Wolverine” ($221 million), 2023’s “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” ($118 million), “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” ($181 million) and 2022’s “Thor: Love and Thunder” ($144 million), were among the biggest opening weekends of their respective years.
“Thunderbolts” cost $180 million to produce and roughly $100 million to market, which is (somehow) slightly less expensive than prior Marvel installments. Still, the newest tentpole will need to stick around on marquees longer than “Captain America Brave New World” in order to justify its hefty price tag. In the case of “Brave New World,” ticket sales started strong, but crumbled in subsequent weekends before tapping out with $414 million globally, leaving the film in the red in its theatrical run. “Thunderbolts” hopes to rehabilitate the image of comic book movies, which were once Teflon at the box office but have recently been in a concerning slump. Over the summer, Marvel will unveil “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” on July 25 while Warner Bros. and DC will debut “Superman” on July 11.
“Thunderbolts” features an ensemble of antiheroes — Sebastian Stan’s Bucky Barnes, Florence Pugh’s Yelena Belova, Wyatt Russell’s John Walker and David Harbour’s Red Guardian, among them — who are forced to work together on a deadly mission. Marvel revealed in March that most of the cast will return for 2026’s “Avengers: Doomsday,” which could help to boost attention for “Thunderbolts.”
As the weekend’s only newcomer, “Thunderbolts” will easily tower over box office charts. However, “Sinners” is expected to take another big bite with ticket sales and is on pace to decline just 20% in its third weekend of release. That would put revenues at $35 million for the weekend. The R-rated vampire thriller, from director Ryan Coogler and Michael B. Jordan, has grossed $123 million domestically and $163 million worldwide so far.
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