“Sinners” is aiming for $45 million to $50 million in its domestic box office debut. Will those ticket sales be enough to dethrone the reigning champ, “A Minecraft Movie”?
In the case of “Sinners,” Warner Bros. is offering a softer range between $35 million and $40 million, while rivals and independent tracking services believe the final number could land above $50 million. Anywhere around $40 million would be solid for the original, R-rated vampire thriller, directed by Ryan Coogler and starring Michael B. Jordan in dual roles. The film is projected to bring in $10 million to $15 million at the international box office. “Sinners” cost $90 million to produce before factoring in global marketing expenses.
Meanwhile “A Minecraft Movie,” another Warner Bros. release, is looking to collect a mighty $40 million to $45 million in its third weekend of release. Either way, a Warner Bros. film will take the top two spots on box office charts. That’s a relief for the studio after back-to-back theatrical misfires of Robert De Niro’s “The Alto Knights” and Bong Joon Ho and Robert Pattinson’s “Mickey 17.”
“A Minecraft Movie,” an unexpected theatrical smash, has generated $283 million domestically and $557 million globally to date. It’s already the year’s highest-grossing movie, ahead of Disney and Marvel’s “Captain America: Brave New World” ($213 million internationally, $410 million globally) and looks to eventually become the first billion-dollar blockbuster of 2025.
“Sinners” reunites Coogler and Jordan, who have collaborated on major properties like “Creed” and “Black Panther.” They’ve already demonstrated a flare for knowing what works at the box office; Coogler’s “Black Panther” and the sequel “Wakanda Forever” grossed a combined $2.2 billion while Jordan’s directorial debut “Creed III” (he took over the franchise from Coogler) wound up as the biggest in the trilogy with $275 million. And based on projections, “Sinners” may establish the duo as the rare talent in Hollywood who can fill seats at multiplexes on the strength of their names — and without the benefit of recognizable IP. In a sign of Warner Bros.’ confidence in Coogler, the studio not only shelled out $90 million for production costs (a huge price tag for original, R-rated fare) but arranged a rare agreement for the filmmaker to eventually own the film rights after 25 years. Not even Spielberg gets that red carpet treatment.
Set in the 1930s, “Sinners” follows twin brothers (Jordan plays the identical siblings called Smoke and Stack) who return to their hometown in the South after World War I, only to be faced with a greater evil. Hailee Steinfeld, Jack O’Connell and Delroy Lindo round out the cast. For those keeping score, “Sinners” is the third Warner Bros. movie this year (and it’s only April) where the lead actor is playing two roles; De Niro and Pattinson starred opposite themselves in “The Alto Knights” and “Mickey 17.”
Reviews for “Sinners” have been excellent (the film boasts a near-perfect 99% average on Rotten Tomatoes), which should help with word-of-mouth. Variety’s chief film critic Owen Gleiberman praised the movie as “a lavishly serious popcorn movie.” In his review, he wrote, “It’s a richly imagined, vibrantly acted portrait of a Deep South community in the early 1930s. It’s also a wild and bloody throat-ripping blowout.”
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