2026 Oscars Best Picture Predictions

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Oscars Best Picture Commentary (Updated June 30, 2025): It’s always debatable when the official starting gun of Oscar season truly goes off. Is it Cannes when the first half of the year wraps up? Or does it begin with the fall trifecta of Venice, Telluride and Toronto, where world-class cinematic endeavors often make their debut? Regardless, it’s time to take the first look at what promises to be a year filled with promising projects from Oscar-winning auteurs, rising visionaries, and, undoubtedly, a few surprise contenders along the way.

While we’re still more than six months away from nominations, and most of the year’s buzziest films haven’t released so much as a teaser trailer, Variety’s first best picture predictions offer a snapshot of what could define the season — and what may prove to be red herrings.

Ask anyone in the know what they’ve heard is “the one,” and you’ll likely get the same response from every studio: “It’s one of the best movies I’ve ever seen,” or “I’d be shocked if it doesn’t win. It’s that good.”

Studios are not known for hyperbole, right?

Nonetheless, leading these very early predictions is “Hamnet” from Focus Features and Oscar-winning “Nomadland” director Chloé Zhao. A prestige drama produced by Pippa Harris, Liza Marshall, Sam Mendes and Steven Spielberg, it headlines Focus’ robust slate. The studio also features another top-tier contender with “Bugonia,” the highly anticipated project from Yorgos Lanthimos. For those keeping score: If Emma Stone is producing, and/or Lanthimos didn’t write it, that’s usually a sign it’s a major awards contender (see: “Poor Things” and “The Favourite”).

Then there’s “Sentimental Value,” Neon’s high-profile acquisition that won the Grand Prix at this year’s Cannes Film Festival. Directed by Joachim Trier and produced by Maria Ekerhovd and Andrew Berentsen Ottmar, the film puts Neon back in the conversation following last year’s dominant run with “Anora.”

Neon CEO Tom Quinn appeared to be on a buying spree in the south of France, picking up multiple contenders, including Palme d’Or winner “It Was Just an Accident” from Jafar Panahi, Jury Prize winner “Sirāt” from Oliver Laxe and “The Secret Agent” from Best Director winner Kleber Mendonça Filho.

It’s safe to say that Neon is gearing up for a multi-title campaign, joined by Netflix and Focus Features, which boast the most formidable slates of any studio this season. Ironically, neither Netflix nor Focus has ever won best picture — despite numerous nominations — and both will be pushing hard to change that narrative.

Netflix’s lineup includes “Jay Kelly” from Noah Baumbach and Guillermo del Toro’s “Frankenstein,” both of which rank in the early top 10. If either film lands with critics and voters — or better yet, both — the streamer could find a pathway to clinch the elusive top prize. Additional titles include Kathryn Bigelow’s long-awaited “A House of Dynamite” and Richard Linklater’s “Nouvelle Vague,” which Netflix acquired out of Cannes and hopes will be France’s submission for best international feature.

Universal Pictures is putting its chips on “Wicked: For Good,” the second installment of Jon M. Chu’s musical adaptation, produced by Marc Platt. It hopes to achieve what few recent musicals have managed — not just awards attention, but a real shot at best picture, something that hasn’t happened since “Chicago” (2002).

20th Century Studios has “Deliver Me From Nowhere,” featuring buzzy performances from Jeremy Allen White and Jeremy Strong, as well as a compelling narrative that industry voters may gravitate toward. Meanwhile, A24 returns with Dwayne Johnson and Benny Safdie’s “The Smashing Machine,” a gritty, character-driven sports drama. Also on deck: Josh Safdie’s “Marty Supreme,” starring Timothée Chalamet; David Lowery’s long-awaited “Mother Mary,” with Anne Hathaway and Michaela Coel; and David Freyne’s “Eternity,” featuring Miles Teller and Elizabeth Olsen, a possible under-the-radar breakout.

While most frontrunners remain unseen, two early-year releases have already staked a claim: Ryan Coogler’s genre-bending “Sinners” and Joseph Kosinski’s sleek racing drama “F1.” Both films delivered strong box office results and critical acclaim.

It’s important to remember that this is just the beginning. With more than 100 titles still to be unveiled — including many marked “U.S. Acquisition TBD” — and the fall festival gauntlet still to come, anything can happen.

For now, the field is taking shape, contenders are stirring, and the summer heat is reaching record highs. Let the season begin.

NOTE: All titles, release dates, studios and listed and credited producers are subject to change.