2025 SAG Awards Predictions in Every Category

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

SAG Awards Commentary (Updated Nov. 26, 2024): The Screen Actors Guild Awards have cemented their role as a critical milestone on the road to Oscar success for films and as either a crowning achievement or an early launchpad for television shows heading into Emmy season.

The SAG cast ensemble award for film, in particular, recognizes the collaborative magic of a movie’s cast — a quality that often signals industry-wide respect. With actors representing the largest voting branch in the Academy, a SAG nom or win frequently builds crucial momentum in the best picture race, making the awards an indispensable part of the awards circuit.

Several major films are poised to leave their mark in the ensemble race.

Universal Pictures’ “Wicked” leads the pack, boasting a star-studded cast headlined by Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, alongside notable names like Michelle Yeoh, Jeff Goldblum and Jonathan Bailey. The blockbuster musical not only highlights standout individual performances but thrives on the chemistry and cohesion of its ensemble.

Another strong player is Focus Features’ “Conclave,” a gripping papal thriller that brings together acting powerhouses Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow and Isabella Rossellini. The film’s intricate character dynamics and emotionally charged performances are tailor-made for an ensemble mention, appealing to voters who appreciate meaty dramatic roles. Similarly, A24’s “Sing Sing,” a prison drama about inmates staging a theater production, celebrates the discovery of new talent while featuring veterans like Colman Domingo. The mix of established and first-time actors, including breakout performer Clarence Maclin, underscores the film’s spirit of ensemble recognition.

Netflix’s “Emilia Pérez” offers a genre-bending and visually vibrant story about identity, led by Karla Sofía Gascón, Zoe Saldaña and Selena Gomez. The film’s exploration of transformation and its diverse cast could resonate deeply with voters, particularly in a politically charged year. Meanwhile, Sony Pictures’ comedy “Saturday Night” could break records as the largest nominated ensemble in history, featuring 26 actors and surpassing “Gosford Park” (2001). The sprawling cast of A-listers and newcomers delivers a kaleidoscopic portrait of interconnected lives throughout one wild night, with 80 speaking parts, that feels tailor-made for SAG Ensemble recognition.

In the individual acting races, SAG can often shine a light on a dark horse performer in the race. It wouldn’t be surprising to see someone like Sebastian Stan pop up for either of his two strong turns in “The Apprentice” and “A Different Man,” or a beloved veteran like Kate Winslet garner recognition for her turn in the war drama “Lee.”

SAG Awards also play a pivotal role in boosting the profiles of television series and their casts, often serving as a preview for Emmy season or a feather cap of the previous one. FX’s historical dramatic epic “Shōgun,” led by Hiroyuki Sanada and Anna Sawai, is already riding high after setting the all-time winning record for a drama series. It would be foolish to think it couldn’t repeat the same trajectory at SAG. However, it will compete against heavyweights like Netflix’s “Squid Game” and Paramount Network’s “Yellowstone,” playing as voters consider their ballots.

ABC’s “Abbott Elementary” is a heavy favorite and critical darling in the comedy races. The sharp, witty writing and the effortless chemistry of its cast, including creator and star Quinta Brunson, have turned the series into an awards-season staple. Other major contenders include Hulu’s “Only Murders in the Building, “featuring Steve Martin, Martin Short and Selena Gomez, and FX’s “The Bear,” whose ensemble has helped elevate the show to one of the year’s most critically acclaimed series. We’ll see if the huge upset of the show losing to HBO/Max’s “Hacks” was a fluke or an indicator for the next Emmy season.

More notable, the SAG Awards are overdue for some significant updates to its ceremony that better reflect the evolution of television.

A category for limited series ensembles would fill a glaring gap, allowing the recognition of projects like Netflix’s “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” and big Emmy winner “Baby Reindeer.” Similarly, the lack of individual supporting categories for television remains a significant oversight. Supporting performances often form the emotional core of a series. Yet, they are lumped into ensemble categories and forced to compete against leading performances, leaving standout turns like Janelle James in “Abbott Elementary” or Kali Reis in HBO’s “True Detective: Night Country” at a disadvantage. The Golden Globes already recognize supporting roles, albeit in combined categories, and it’s time for the SAG Awards to follow suit.

The 31st Screen Actors Guild Awards will air live on Netflix on Sunday, Feb. 23, 2025, and the 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2.