Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Original Song
Weekly Commentary (Updated Oct 14, 2024): The Oscar lineup for best original song always adds an extra layer of A-list talent to the ceremony, and this year looks to be no exception. That is if the Music Branch feels inclined to do so. Once again, we’re seeing some of the biggest names in music vying for the gold, one year after Billie Eilish and Finneas became the youngest two-time Oscar winners with “What Was I Made For?” from “Barbie.” Could we see some more megastars return to the Academy Awards stage?
One of the most pulsating contenders this year is Netflix’s “Emilia Pérez,” which boasts two songs vying for attention — “El Mal” and “Mi Camino.” Both tracks were crafted by the talented duo of Clément Ducol and Camille, with the film’s director, Jacques Audiard, co-writing “El Mal.” As if that weren’t enough, there’s even a possibility of a third song being submitted for extra recognition. Could it be the energetic opening number, “El Alegato,” performed by the charismatic Zoe Saldaña? With so many musical options, “Emilia” could undoubtedly increase its visibility, but will the strategists risk a vote-split?
Another exciting possibility in the race is Miley Cyrus, who co-wrote “Beautiful That Way” with Lykke Li and last year’s Oscar-nominated songwriter Andrew Wyatt (of “I’m Just Ken” fame). Fresh off her Grammy wins for Best Pop Solo Performance and Record of the Year for her smash hit “Flowers,” Miley might be on track to earn her first Oscar nomination. Could this be her year to conquer Hollywood, too?
Ed Sheeran is also in the discussion with his song “Under the Tree,” featured in Richard Curtis’ animated Netflix film “That Christmas.” Meanwhile, Pharrell Williams has not one but two tracks in the running — the title song from “Piece by Piece” and the catchy “Double Life” from “Despicable Me 4.”
We can also expect some viable contenders from the animated and photorealistic movie slate. Disney’s “Moana 2” and “Mufasa: The Lion King,” as well as DreamWorks’ surprise box office hit “The Wild Robot,” are poised to deliver songs that could enchant both audiences and Academy voters alike.
And let’s not count out Lady Gaga. Despite the underwhelming box office performance and critical reception of her film “Joker: Folie à Deux,” Gaga could still strike an Oscar nom with the film’s title track (if submitted). She’s an Academy Award-winning songwriter, after all, with the song “Shallow” from “A Star is Born.” And if anyone can pull off an Oscar nod under tough circumstances, it’s Mother Monster herself!
Look at the first prediction charts below, and return every Thursday for updates.
Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars.
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, and distributors are not final and are subject to change.
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And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Performer & Film 1 “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) — “Mi Camino” by Clément Ducol and Camille 2 “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) — “Kiss the Sky” by Delacey, Jordan Johnson, Stefan Johnson, Maren Morris, Michael Pollack & Ali Tamposi 3 “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) — “Winter Coat” by Nicholas Britell, Steve McQueen, and Taura Stinson 4 “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix) — “The Journey” by Diane Warren 5 “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) — “El Mal” by Clément Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard Oscars: Best Original Song (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Next in Line
Rank Performer & Film 6 “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) — “Folie à Deux” by Lady Gaga 7 “Moana 2” (Walt Disney Pictures) — “Beyond” by Abigail Barlow and Emily Bear 8 “Piece by Piece” (Focus Features) — “Piece by Piece” by Pharrell Williams 9 “Will & Harper” (Netflix) — “Harper and Will Go West” by Sean Douglas, Kristen Wiig & Josh Greenbaum 10 “Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures) — To be announced Oscars: Best Original Song (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Other Contenders
Rank Performer & Film 11 “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures) — “Forbidden Road” by Robbie Williams, Freddy Wexler & Sacha Skarbek 12 “The Last Showgirl” (Roadside Attractions) — “Beautiful That Way” by Miley Cyrus, Lykke Li, and Andrew Wyatt 13 “Twisters” (Universal Pictures) — “Out of Oklahoma” by Lainey Wilson, Luke Dick & Shane McAnally 14 “Elton John: Never Too Late” (Walt Disney Pictures) — “Never Too Late” by Elton John & Brandi Carlile 15 “Kneecap” (Sony Pictures Classics) — “Sick In The Head” by Móglaí Bap, Mo Chara, DJ Próvaí, Adrian Louis Richard Mcleod, and Toddla T 16 “That Christmas” (Netflix) — “Under the Tree” by Ed Sheeran 17 “Queer” (A24) — “Vaster Than Empires” by William Burroughs, Trent Reznor, and Atticus Ross 18 “Challengers” (Amazon MGM) — “Compress/Regress” by Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross & Luca Guadagnino 19 “Cabrini” (Angel Studios) — “Dare to Be” by Andrea Bocelli, Gene Back, Giovanni Caccomo & Courtney Rodriguez 20 “Mean Girls” (Paramount Pictures) — “Not My Fault” by Alexander 23, Nell Benjamin, Jasper Harris, Megan Thee Stallion, Reneé Rapp, Jeff Richmond, Ryan Tedder, and Billy Walsh Oscars: Best Original Song (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Eligible Song Submissions (Best Original Song)
** This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.
- “Babygirl” (A24) — “Leash” by Sky Ferreira & Jorge Elbrecht
- “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures) — “Forbidden Road” by Robbie Williams, Freddy Wexler & Sacha Skarbek
- “Between the Temples” (Sony Pictures Classics) — “A Country Dance” by Joanna Sternberg
- “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) — “Winter Coat” by Nicholas Britell, Steve McQueen, and Taura Stinson
- “The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures) — “JEEZU” by Jeymes Samuel, Doja Cat and Kodak Black
- “The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures) — “I Want You Forever” by Jeymes Samuel, D’Angelo, Jay-Z
- “Cabrini” (Angel Studios) — “Dare to Be” by Andrea Bocelli, Gene Back, Giovanni Caccomo & Courtney Rodriguez
- “Challengers” (Amazon MGM) — “Compress/Regress” by Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross & Luca Guadagnino
- “Cuckoo” (Neon) — “Gretchen’s Song” by Simon Waskow
- “Despicable Me 4” (Illumination/Universal Pictures) — “Double Life” by Pharrell Williams
- “Dìdi” (Focus Features) — “Stop Talking” by Joshua Cain, Jesse Johnson, Justin Pierre, Matthew Taylor, and Tony Thaxton
- “Elton John: Never Too Late” (Walt Disney Pictures) — “Never Too Late” by Elton John & Brandi Carlile
- “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) — “El Mal” by Clement Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard
- “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) — “Mi Camino” by Clement Ducol and Camille
- “The End” (Neon) — To be announced
- “Exhibiting Forgiveness” (Roadside Attractions) — “Bricks” by Jherek Bischoff and Andra Day
- “Ezra” (Roadside Attractions) — “Ezra” by Adrienne Ackerman
- “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) — “In Time” by Rodrigo Amarante
- “I Saw the TV Glow” (A24) — “Claw Machine” by Haley Dahl
- “I Saw the TV Glow” (A24) — “Starburned and Unkissed” by A. G. Cook and Caroline Polachek
- “The Idea of You” (Amazon MGM) — “The Idea of You” by Savan Kotecha, Albin Nedler & Carl Falk
- “The Imaginary” (Netflix) — “Nothing’s Impossible” by Ian Axel & Chad King
- “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) — “Folie à Deux” by Lady Gaga
- “Kneecap” (Sony Pictures Classics) — “Sick In The Head” by Móglaí Bap, Mo Chara, DJ Próvaí, Adrian Louis Richard Mcleod, and Toddla T
- “The Last Showgirl” (Roadside Attractions) — “Beautiful That Way” by Miley Cyrus, Lykke Li, and Andrew Wyatt
- “Mean Girls” (Paramount Pictures) — “Not My Fault” by Alexander 23, Nell Benjamin, Jasper Harris, Megan Thee Stallion, Reneé Rapp, Jeff Richmond, Ryan Tedder, and Billy Walsh
- “Moana 2” (Walt Disney Pictures) — “Beyond” by Abigail Barlow and Emily Bear
- “Moana 2” (Walt Disney Pictures) — “We’re Back” by TBD
- “Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures) — To be announced
- “Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures) — “I Always Wanted a Brother” by TBD
- “Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures) — “Ngomso” by TBD
- “Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures) — “Summer Blue” by Nate Heller
- “Piece by Piece” (Focus Features) — “Piece by Piece” by Pharrell Williams
- “Piece by Piece” (Focus Features) — “For Real” by Pharrell Williams
- “Problemista” (A24) — “Huele a Fraude” by Stefa Marin Alarcon, Robert Ouyang Rusli, and Julio Torres
- “Queer” (A24) — “Vaster Than Empires” by William Burroughs, Trent Reznor, and Atticus Ross
- “Sasquatch Sunset” (Bleecker Street) — “The Creatures of Nature” by Josh Lambert, Yvonne Lambert, Toto Miranda, and David Zellner
- “Shirley” (Netflix) — “Why I’m Here” by Samara Joy and P.J. Morton
- “Sing Sing” (A24) — “Like a Bird” by Abraham Alexander, Brandon Marcel & Adrian Quesada
- “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix) — “The Journey” by Diane Warren
- “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” (Paramount Pictures) — To be announced
- “Spellbound” (Netflix) — To be announced
- “That Christmas” (Netflix) — “Under the Tree” by Ed Sheeran
- “Transformers One” (Paramount Pictures) — “If I Fall” by Brian ‘Are We Dreaming’ Tyler, Quavious ‘Quavo’ Keyate Marshall, Tyrone ‘Ty Dolla $ign’ Griffin Jr. & Nicholas James McGuinn
- “Trap” (Warner Bros.) — “Release” by Dot Da Genius, Elijah Fox, and Saleka
- “Twisters” (Universal Pictures) — “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” by Jessi Alexander, Luke Combs & Jonathan Singleton
- “Twisters” (Universal Pictures) — “Out of Oklahoma” by Lainey Wilson, Luke Dick & Shane McAnally
- “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) — “Even When I’m Not” by Delacey, Jordan K. Johnson, Stefan Johnson, Michael Pollack, Ali Tamposi, and Isaiah Tejada
- “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) — “Kiss the Sky” by Delacey, Jordan Johnson, Stefan Johnson, Maren Morris, Michael Pollack & Ali Tamposi
- “Will & Harper” (Netflix) — “Harper and Will Go West” by Sean Douglas, Kristen Wiig & Josh Greenbaum
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More Information (Oscars: Best Original Song)
2024 category winner: “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) — “What Was I Made For?” by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell (music and lyrics)
2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline – Full awards season calendar here
- Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
- General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
- Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
- Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
- Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
- Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
- Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
- Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
- Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
- Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
- 97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars Prediction Categories
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
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