Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Tramell Tillman in “Severance”
Apple TV+
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series Commentary (Updated June 18, 2025): With 235 submissions in the Emmy race for outstanding supporting drama actor, voters are facing one of the deepest and most competitive acting categories of the year. Under the Television Academy’s rules, the volume of submissions guarantees seven nominees, though the possibility of a tie or statistical rounding could expand the field to eight — and it may be necessary, given how many heavyweights are stacked in this lineup.
Two major ensemble dramas, HBO Max’s “The White Lotus” and Apple TV+’s “Severance,” appear poised to dominate the category with multiple contenders each, potentially squeezing out standalone submissions from equally deserving players.
Leading the pack is Walton Goggins, whose unsettling and magnetic performance in the third season of “The White Lotus” has him pegged as a frontrunner. He’s joined by Jason Isaacs, playing the resort’s enigmatic new manager, as well as Sam Rockwell, Patrick Schwarzenegger, and a slew of other breakout ensemble members, including Sam Nivola and Tayme Thapthimthong. With HBO historically strong in this category — and “The White Lotus” already proven to be Emmy gold — it’s not inconceivable that the show could take up three (or even four or five) spots on the final ballot.
Meanwhile, “Severance” returned for its second season with renewed fervor, and the Apple TV+ psychological thriller boasts just as rich a bench. Tramell Tillman, a breakout star, continues to garner buzz for his precise and menacing portrayal of Milchick. John Turturro and Christopher Walken reprise their moving, restrained performances as doomed co-workers (and possible lovers), while Zach Cherry and Michael Chernus also remain in the mix.
But if there’s a name on the list that stands apart by sheer circumstance, it’s Jeffrey Wright for “The Agency” on Paramount+. The Oscar nominee delivers a riveting turn in the espionage series and is tracking as the show’s only feasible acting contender. Should he land a nomination without any co-stars joining him in other acting categories (or if the show is shut out in tech categories altogether), he would become the first solo representative in this category since Andre Braugher was nominated alone for “Men of a Certain Age” in 2011 and 2012.
Outside of the two dominant shows, respected veterans and fresh faces are fighting for a foothold. Bradley Whitford is in the mix again for Hulu’s “The Handmaid’s Tale,” coming after three previous noms for his role and standing as the final shot to recognize him for the series. Apple’s Jack Lowden (“Slow Horses”), Hulu’s James Marsden (“Paradise”), and HBO Max’s Patrick Ball (“The Pitt”) are all in the next tier of contenders hoping for a breakthrough.
The Emmys eligibility period ends on May 31. Nomination voting runs from June 12 to June 23, with official nominations set to be announced July 15.
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And the Predicted Contenders Are:
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More Information (Supporting Actor Drama)
2024 category winner: Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+) — Season 3
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About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.
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