Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Ike Barinholtz from “The Studio”
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series Commentary (Updated June 17, 2025): With a staggering 161 contenders vying for just seven slots, the Emmy race for supporting comedy actor is open to various outcomes.
At the top of the leaderboard sits Ike Barinholtz for Apple TV+’s “The Studio,” a breakout ensemble satire that’s gaining momentum across categories, and could be the most nominated series of the year. Barinholtz’s top competition may come from Ebon Moss-Bachrach, the reigning Emmy winner for FX’s “The Bear.”
Paul W. Downs, a previous Emmy winner for writing, has become a reliable comedic force on HBO Max’s “Hacks.” His continued presence as the sardonic, endearingly chaotic manager, Jimmy, has earned him another strong shot at a nomination — and perhaps even a win, if the show continues to build industry support. Possibly even Carl Clemons-Hopkins can make a triumphant return to the lineup after their inaugural nomination for the first season.
Another major player is Harrison Ford, whose turn in “Shrinking” has been a surprise awards darling (although he missed out on the Season 1 nom). At 82, Ford delivers one of his most relaxed and resonant performances, and with Apple TV+ backing him aggressively, he could easily land his first acting nod, in comedy, no less. His co-star (and Critics Choice winner) Michael Urie, meanwhile, is also in the hunt, rounding out the “Shrinking” trio with Brett Goldstein, who has double-submitted himself for both acting and writing credits.
ABC’s “Abbott Elementary” continues to be a magnet for attention, and Tyler James Williams is again in the race, with impeccable timing alongside co-star Chris Perfetti, who remains just outside the predicted lineup but still within striking distance.
NBC’s “Saturday Night Live” also returns with multiple possibilities, led by three-time acting nominee Bowen Yang, who remains one of the sketch show’s most consistent and Emmy-loved players (especially after last year’s massive box office smash “Wicked”). Marcello Hernández, James Austin Johnson, Mikey Day and Kenan Thompson are among the top acting candidates that also made submissions, creating a slight possibility of a multi-nom scenario, especially if voters continue to embrace SNL’s 50th year.
FX’s “What We Do in the Shadows” maintains its loyal Emmy base, and Harvey Guillén could be poised for his long-overdue nomination for the final season. At the same time, Randall Park (“The Residence”) and Matt Bomer (“Mid-Century Modern”) offer compelling turns and could be dark horses from newer shows.
In a field this crowded, campaign strategy, show buzz and network loyalty may carry just as much weight as the performer.
The Emmys eligibility period ends on May 31. Nomination voting runs from June 12 to June 23, with official nominations set to be announced July 15.
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And the Predicted Contenders Are:
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More Information (Supporting Actor Comedy)
2024 category winner: Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear” (FX) — Season 3
Christopher Polk!function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}}))}();
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About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.
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