Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Cristin Milioti as Sofia Falcone in HBO’s “The Penguin”
Courtesy of Max
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie Commentary (Updated May 29, 2025): Only five nominees will emerge from the 54 submissions in this year’s Emmy race for lead actress (limited) — and all signs point to Michelle Williams as the one to beat.
With her devastating performance in FX’s “Dying for Sex,” Williams has staked a clear claim to frontrunner status. Based on the popular podcast of the same name, the limited series follows a woman diagnosed with terminal cancer who reclaims agency over her life and sexuality. Williams’ fearless portrayal has earned widespread acclaim and could bring her a second Emmy.
A five-time Oscar nominee, most recently for Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans,” Williams previously won the Emmy in 2019 for FX’s “Fosse/Verdon.”
Williams’ most significant competition is Cristin Milioti from HBO/Max’s “The Penguin,” the dark crime Batman spinoff where she stars opposite Colin Farrell. If “The Penguin” scores across multiple categories, Milioti could ride its momentum and become a complementary nominee to Farrell, who is already seen as a top contender in the lead actor race.
Hot on her heels is two-time Oscar winner Cate Blanchett from Apple TV+’s “Disclaimer,” directed by Alfonso Cuarón. A previous Emmy nominee for 2020’s “Mrs. America,” Blanchett has yet to win television’s top prize.
Beyond the top tier, several contenders could surprise.
Ellen Pompeo, after nearly 20 years as Meredith Grey on “Grey’s Anatomy,” enters new territory with Hulu’s “Good American Family.” Peacock could be home to multiple bids as well — Amanda Seyfried, an Emmy winner for “The Dropout,” returns with “Long Bright River.” At the same time, Renée Zellweger reprises her iconic role in the television movie “Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy.”
The last spots could also go to Lola Petticrew, a breakout in FX’s “Say Nothing,” or previous nominee Meghann Fahy, who received best-in-show notices for Netflix’s “Sirens.” I would also keep an eye on Rashida Jones from “Black Mirror” or even Ari Graynor, who can ride a wave of love coming for “Monsters: The Erik and Lyle Menendez Story.”
The Emmys eligibility period ends on May 31. Nomination voting runs from June 12 to June 23, with official nominations set to be announced July 15.
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And the Predicted Contenders Are:
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More Information (Lead Actress Limited)
2024 category winner: Jodie Foster, “True Detective: Night Country” (HBO/Max)
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About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.
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