Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
REBEL RIDGE, Aaron Pierre, 2024. ph: Allyson Riggs / © Netflix / Courtesy Everett Collection
©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection
Outstanding Television Movie Commentary (Updated June 17, 2025): The race for outstanding television movie at this year’s Emmys features only 39 submissions, but don’t let the modest number fool you — the competition is dense with star power and bold genre swings.
Currently leading the pack is Netflix’s “Rebel Ridge,” a taut political thriller from director Jeremy Saulnier (“Green Room,” “Blue Ruin”) that already scored a Critics Choice Award win earlier this year. Netflix is no stranger to victory in this category, having won before, most recently for 2021’s “Dolly Parton’s Christmas on the Square.”
The most high-profile challenger might be “Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy” from Peacock, a nostalgia-fueled rom-com sequel that reunites fans with Renée Zellweger’s iconic heroine. With mainstream appeal and franchise familiarity, the film could become a crowd-pleasing nominee and mark a breakthrough Emmy moment for Peacock.
But perhaps the most intriguing entry comes from HBO Max with “Mountainhead,” the feature directorial debut of “Succession” creator and Emmy magnet Jesse Armstrong. Premiering May 31, the final day of the eligibility period, with a star-studded cast including Steve Carell, Ramy Youssef and Jason Schwartzman, the modest reviews could be enough to get it over the finish line.
Also in the mix is Netflix’s “Nonnas,” a heartfelt comedy from director Stephen Chbosky and starring Vince Vaughn, and Disney+’s “Out of My Mind,” a poignant coming-of-age drama based on Sharon M. Draper’s bestselling novel.
Looking just outside the frontrunners, several titles are circling the bubble. Apple TV+ has “The Gorge,” a stylish genre-bender directed by Scott Derrickson and starring Miles Teller, which brings a slick thriller energy to the category. Hulu has two potential surprises: “The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat,” a decades-spanning drama about friendship and food, “O’Dessa,” a music-driven epic that premiered at SXSW and stars rising talent Sadie Sink in a bold new role and David Gordon Green’s “Nutcrackers” with Ben Stiller, which Hulu picked up out of the 2024 Toronto Film Festival.
With only five nomination slots, securing a spot may be the most challenging part for these films.
The Emmys eligibility period ends on May 31. Nomination voting runs from June 12 to June 23, with official nominations set to be announced July 15.
-
And the Predicted Contenders Are:
Image Credit: Photo Courtesy Nutcracker Productions LLC/Hulu !function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}}))}();
-
More Information (TV Movie)
2024 category winner: “Quiz Lady” (Hulu) — Alex Brown and Erika Hampson, executive producers; Will Ferrell, Jessica Elbaum, Maggie Haskins, Itay Reiss, Jen D’Angelo, Awkwafina and Sandra Oh, produced by
©20th Century Studios/Courtesy Everett Collection!function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}}))}();
!function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}}))}();
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.
Read the full article here
