Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Outstanding Comedy Series Commentary (Updated May 2, 2025): The race for outstanding comedy series at this year’s Emmys is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable.

Apple TV+ has entered the mix with “The Studio,” a Hollywood satire created by and starring Seth Rogen, which could become the kind of first-season breakout the Emmys are known to embrace. Especially with a strong possibility at writing and directing statuettes.

HBO/Max’s “Hacks” is roaring back with a sharp fourth season, once again anchored by Jean Smart’s Emmy-winning turn as Deborah Vance. ABC’s “Abbott Elementary,” meanwhile, continues to earn acclaim for its mix of humor and social commentary. A previous winner in writing and acting categories, the network sitcom has never taken home the top prize — but this season, led by two-time Emmy winner Quinta Brunson, may be its best shot yet.

But this year’s comedy field is far from a three-horse race.

FX’s “The Bear,” despite continued genre classification debates, remains an awards powerhouse following its record-breaking run last year. We’ll see how the upcoming fourth season, during Emmy nomination voting, improves its chances after a mixed reception for its third.

And Hulu’s “Only Murders in the Building” delivered an impressive fourth season that kept its guild support strong, punctuated by a surprise SAG Award win for best ensemble.

The comedy race also gets a fresh contender from Netflix with “The Four Seasons,” marking a semi-return to form for Tina Fey and her signature brand of absurdist, tightly structured, joke-dense humor. Co-created with “30 Rock” alumnae Tracey Wigfield and Lang Fisher, the show is complete with clarinet-heavy score and rapid-fire punchlines. With its veteran pedigree, “The Four Seasons” could be a surprise standout come Emmy nomination morning, despite tepid reviews.

(The list of predicted nominees and contenders is incomplete and will be updated every Thursday throughout the TV Awards season.)

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